Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vihiga United FC vs Ulinzi Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
2 – 0
Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
12/9/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 1Mumias Sports Complex (Mumias)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vihiga United FC29%
×Draw32%
Ulinzi Stars38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
0.84
Ulinzi Stars
1.01

Ulinzi Stars creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 146 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
0.73
Ulinzi Stars
0.86

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.17
Ulinzi Stars
0.95

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Ulinzi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
62%
Vihiga United FC or Ulinzi Stars
68%
Draw or Ulinzi Stars
71%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
10%
Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
57%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
21%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
5%
Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
64%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
27%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
43%
Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.73 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
29%
level
32%
Ulinzi Stars scores more
38%

Ulinzi Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs Ulinzi Stars

Vihiga United FC beat Ulinzi Stars 2-0 in FKF Premier League on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex (Mumias).