Vihiga United FC 0–1 Thika United: Result & Stats

Vihiga United FC

FT

0 – 1

Thika United

5/27/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 17Mumias Sports Complex (Mumias)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vihiga United FC40%

×Draw30%

Thika United30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga United FCExpected goals in this matchThika United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.92

Vihiga United FC

1.11

Thika United

0.92

Vihiga United FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

0.73

creates per match

0.67

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vihiga United FC

0.73

Thika United

0.67

allows per match

Vihiga United FC

1.17

Thika United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Thika United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Thika United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw

70%

Vihiga United FC or Thika United

70%

Draw or Thika United

60%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

16%

Thika United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

67%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

30%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

10%

Thika United 1+ goals

60%

Thika United 2+ goals

23%

Thika United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

57%

Thika United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Thika United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.73 + Thika United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Thika United attack 0.67 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more

40%

level

30%

Thika United scores more

30%

Vihiga United FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff