Vihiga United FC 0–1 Sofapaka: Result & Stats

Vihiga United FC

FT

0 – 1

Sofapaka

5/6/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 14Mumias Sports Complex (Mumias)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vihiga United FC32%

×Draw31%

Sofapaka37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga United FCExpected goals in this matchSofapaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.05

Vihiga United FC

0.94

Sofapaka

1.05

Sofapaka creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 145 away

0.73

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Vihiga United FC

0.73

Sofapaka

0.93

allows per match

Vihiga United FC

1.17

Sofapaka

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Sofapaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Sofapaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw

63%

Vihiga United FC or Sofapaka

69%

Draw or Sofapaka

68%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

11%

Sofapaka wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

61%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

24%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

7%

Sofapaka 1+ goals

65%

Sofapaka 2+ goals

28%

Sofapaka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

46%

Sofapaka (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

Sofapaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.15 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 0.73 + Sofapaka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sofapaka attack 0.93 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more

32%

level

31%

Sofapaka scores more

37%

Sofapaka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff