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Vihiga United FC vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
1 – 1
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
11/6/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Vihiga United FC36%
×Draw28%
Migori Youth36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.19
Migori Youth
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 91 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
1.14
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.46
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
64%
Vihiga United FC or Migori Youth
72%
Draw or Migori Youth
64%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
15%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
70%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
33%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
12%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
70%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
33%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
50%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
36%
level
28%
Migori Youth scores more
36%

Vihiga United FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs Migori Youth

Vihiga United FC and Migori Youth drew 1-1 in Super League on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.