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Migori Youth vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
2 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
5/22/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Migori Youth59%
×Draw25%
Vihiga United FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.56
Vihiga United FC
0.66

Migori Youth creates 136% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 55 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
84%
Migori Youth or Vihiga United FC
75%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
41%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
32%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
79%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
46%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
21%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
48%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
14%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
79%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Migori Youth scores more
59%
level
25%
Vihiga United FC scores more
16%

Migori Youth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Migori Youth vs Vihiga United FC

Migori Youth beat Vihiga United FC 2-1 in Super League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.