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Vihiga United FC vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
Unknown 39'
V. Ngume 25'
3/15/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vihiga United FC31%
×Draw27%
Mara Sugar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.15
Mara Sugar
1.39

Mara Sugar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 52 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
1.14
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.46
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
58%
Vihiga United FC or Mara Sugar
73%
Draw or Mara Sugar
69%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
13%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
68%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
32%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
11%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
75%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
40%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
42%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
31%
level
27%
Mara Sugar scores more
42%

Mara Sugar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
V. Ngume
39'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs Mara Sugar

Vihiga United FC and Mara Sugar drew 1-1 in Super League on March 15, 2023.

Goals: V. Ngume (25'), ? (39').

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.