Vihiga United FC 0–1 Kibera Black Stars

Vihiga United FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kibera Black Stars

S. Mzee 43'

12/14/2022

Super League · Round 4Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Vihiga United FC37%

×Draw27%

Kibera Black Stars36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga United FCExpected goals in this matchKibera Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Vihiga United FC

1.23

Kibera Black Stars

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 110 away

1.14

creates per match

0.95

1.46

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Vihiga United FC

1.14

Kibera Black Stars

0.95

allows per match

Vihiga United FC

1.46

Kibera Black Stars

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Kibera Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw

64%

Vihiga United FC or Kibera Black Stars

73%

Draw or Kibera Black Stars

63%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

16%

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

71%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

35%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

13%

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

70%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

34%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

51%

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more

37%

level

27%

Kibera Black Stars scores more

36%

Vihiga United FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

S. Mzee

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff