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Vihiga United FC vs Assad — Super League 2018

Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Assad
Assad
Unknown 90', 73', 45', 35', 12'
Unknown 56'
2/18/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Vihiga United FC52%
×Draw24%
Assad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga United FC
1.71
Assad
1.10

Vihiga United FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 73 away

creates per match

Vihiga United FC
1.14
Assad
0.74

allows per match

Vihiga United FC
1.46
Assad
2.29

finishing

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par
Assad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United FC ↓

Assad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vihiga United FC or draw
76%
Vihiga United FC or Assad
76%
Draw or Assad
48%

Winning margin

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
28%
Assad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
82%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
51%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
24%
Assad 1+ goals
67%
Assad 2+ goals
30%
Assad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
68%
Assad (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

Assad away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.29 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United FC attack 1.14 + Assad defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Assad attack 0.74 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vihiga United FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Assad scores more
24%

Vihiga United FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vihiga United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
35'
45'
56'
73'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga United FC vs Assad

Vihiga United FC beat Assad 5-1 in Super League on February 18, 2023.

Goals: ? (12', 35', 45', 56', 73', 90').

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.