Vihiga Bullets 4–2 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Vihiga Bullets

FT

4 – 2

Wazito FC

1/9/2022

FKF Premier League · Round 12Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets32%

×Draw28%

Wazito FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

Vihiga Bullets

1.10

Wazito FC

1.25

Wazito FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 77 away

0.76

creates per match

0.75

1.76

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

0.76

Wazito FC

0.75

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.76

Wazito FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

60%

Vihiga Bullets or Wazito FC

72%

Draw or Wazito FC

68%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

13%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

67%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

30%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

10%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

71%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

36%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

45%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.10

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

32%

level

28%

Wazito FC scores more

40%

Wazito FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff