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Vihiga Bullets vs Talanta — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
0 – 1
Talanta
Talanta
5/13/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 27Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets28%
×Draw26%
Talanta46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.08
Talanta
1.46

Talanta creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 69 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
Talanta
1.17

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
Talanta
1.41

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
54%
Vihiga Bullets or Talanta
74%
Draw or Talanta
72%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
11%
Talanta wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
66%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
29%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
10%
Talanta 1+ goals
77%
Talanta 2+ goals
43%
Talanta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
38%
Talanta (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Talanta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Talanta defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Talanta attack 1.17 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
28%
level
26%
Talanta scores more
46%

Talanta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Talanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs Talanta

Talanta beat Vihiga Bullets 1-0 in FKF Premier League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.