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Vihiga Bullets vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
3/17/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vihiga Bullets28%
×Draw27%
Nzoia Sugar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.04
Nzoia Sugar
1.39

Nzoia Sugar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 111 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
0.76
Nzoia Sugar
1.02

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.76
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
55%
Vihiga Bullets or Nzoia Sugar
73%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
72%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
11%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
65%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
28%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
9%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
75%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
40%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
39%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.76 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
28%
level
27%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
45%

Nzoia Sugar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs Nzoia Sugar

Nzoia Sugar beat Vihiga Bullets 1-0 in FKF Premier League on March 17, 2022.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.