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Vihiga Bullets vs MCF — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MCF
MCF
1/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets43%
×Draw28%
MCF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.27
MCF
1.00

Vihiga Bullets creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
MCF
0.88

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
MCF
1.22

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

MCF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
71%
Vihiga Bullets or MCF
72%
Draw or MCF
57%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
19%
MCF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
72%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
36%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
14%
MCF 1+ goals
63%
MCF 2+ goals
26%
MCF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
59%
MCF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

MCF attack 0.88 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
43%
level
28%
MCF scores more
29%

Vihiga Bullets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga Bullets 0–0 MCF

Vihiga Bullets and MCF drew 0-0 in Super League on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at KIHBT Grounds in Ngong Kibiku.