Vihiga Bullets 1–1 Dimba Patriots: Result & Stats

Vihiga Bullets

FT

1 – 1

Dimba Patriots

9/24/2023

Super League · Round 2Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets45%

×Draw29%

Dimba Patriots26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga BulletsExpected goals in this matchDimba Patriots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.89

Vihiga Bullets

1.25

Dimba Patriots

0.89

Vihiga Bullets creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.32

creates per match

0.67

1.11

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.32

Dimba Patriots

0.67

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets

1.11

Dimba Patriots

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Dimba Patriots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw

74%

Vihiga Bullets or Dimba Patriots

71%

Draw or Dimba Patriots

55%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

20%

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

71%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

36%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

13%

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

59%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

22%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

63%

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more

45%

level

29%

Dimba Patriots scores more

26%

Vihiga Bullets at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff