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Vihiga Bullets vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
4 – 1
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
10/22/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets55%
×Draw24%
Coastal Heroes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.71
Coastal Heroes
0.96

Vihiga Bullets creates 78% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
79%
Vihiga Bullets or Coastal Heroes
76%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
45%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
30%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
82%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
51%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
24%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
62%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
25%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
72%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
55%
level
24%
Coastal Heroes scores more
21%

Vihiga Bullets at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Vihiga Bullets 4–1 Coastal Heroes

Vihiga Bullets beat Coastal Heroes 4-1 in Super League on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Mumias Sports Complex in Mumias.