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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
0 – 2
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
9/21/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 4Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo61%
×Draw21%
Yantra Polski Trambesh19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.10
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.08

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 99 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
81%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Yantra Polski Trambesh
79%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
39%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
37%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
88%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
62%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
35%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
66%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
29%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
76%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.10

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
61%
level
21%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
19%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihar Slavyanovo vs Yantra Polski Trambesh

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Vihar Slavyanovo 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.