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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
3 – 1
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
8/18/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 2Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo39%
×Draw24%
Yantra 201936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
1.54
Yantra 2019
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
64%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Yantra 2019
76%
Draw or Yantra 2019
61%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
19%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
79%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
45%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
20%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
77%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
43%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
52%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
39%
level
24%
Yantra 2019 scores more
36%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 3–1 Yantra 2019

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Yantra 2019 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.