Vihar Slavyanovo 1–3 Spartak Pleven: Result & Stats

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Pleven

3/26/2022

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 23Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo37%

×Draw25%

Spartak Pleven38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.43

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.42

Spartak Pleven

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 48 away

2.08

creates per match

2.08

0.77

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

Spartak Pleven

2.08

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

Spartak Pleven

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

62%

Vihar Slavyanovo or Spartak Pleven

75%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

63%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

17%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

76%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

41%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

17%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

76%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

42%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

50%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

37%

level

25%

Spartak Pleven scores more

38%

Spartak Pleven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff