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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Partizan — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
1 – 0
Partizan
Partizan
5/28/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 33Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo64%
×Draw21%
Partizan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.00
Partizan
0.85

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 135% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 106 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Partizan
0.94

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Partizan
1.92

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
85%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Partizan
79%
Draw or Partizan
36%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
39%
Partizan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
86%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
59%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
32%
Partizan 1+ goals
57%
Partizan 2+ goals
21%
Partizan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
81%
Partizan (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Partizan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.92 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Partizan defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.00

Partizan attack 0.94 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
64%
level
21%
Partizan scores more
15%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihar Slavyanovo vs Partizan

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Partizan 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.