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Partizan vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
10/12/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Partizan40%
×Draw25%
Vihar Slavyanovo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
1.44
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 95 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
65%
Partizan or Vihar Slavyanovo
75%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
60%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
19%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
76%
Partizan 2+ goals
42%
Partizan 3+ goals
18%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
73%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
38%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
54%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Partizan scores more
40%
level
25%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
35%

Partizan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 0–0 Vihar Slavyanovo

Partizan and Vihar Slavyanovo drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.