Vihar Slavyanovo 1–3 Lokomotiv Mezdra

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

1 – 3

Lokomotiv Mezdra

4/6/2024

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 22Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo56%

×Draw23%

Lokomotiv Mezdra22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Mezdra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.06

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.85

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.06

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 106 away

2.08

creates per match

1.36

0.77

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.36

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

78%

Vihar Slavyanovo or Lokomotiv Mezdra

77%

Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra

44%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

32%

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

84%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

55%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

28%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals

65%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals

29%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

72%

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

56%

level

23%

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more

22%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff