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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Levski Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
0 – 2
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
5/30/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 34Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo34%
×Draw26%
Levski Lom40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
1.27
Levski Lom
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Levski Lom
2.00

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Levski Lom
0.47

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
60%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Levski Lom
74%
Draw or Levski Lom
66%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
15%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
72%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
36%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
14%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
75%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
40%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
46%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
34%
level
26%
Levski Lom scores more
40%

Levski Lom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 0–2 Levski Lom

Levski Lom beat Vihar Slavyanovo 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.