Vihar Slavyanovo 3–1 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

3 – 1

Botev Lukovit

4/21/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 24Stadion Slavyanovo (Slavyanovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo66%

×Draw21%

Botev Lukovit14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.79

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.00

Botev Lukovit

0.79

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 153% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

2.08

creates per match

0.80

0.77

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

86%

Vihar Slavyanovo or Botev Lukovit

79%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

34%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

41%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

86%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

59%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

32%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

55%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

19%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

82%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

66%

level

21%

Botev Lukovit scores more

14%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff