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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Bdin — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
2 – 1
Bdin
Bdin
3/3/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 17Stadion Slavyanovo (Slavyanovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo59%
×Draw21%
Bdin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.05
Bdin
1.12

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 93 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Bdin
1.47

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Bdin
2.03

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
80%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Bdin
79%
Draw or Bdin
41%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
35%
Bdin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
87%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
61%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
33%
Bdin 1+ goals
67%
Bdin 2+ goals
31%
Bdin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
74%
Bdin (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Bdin away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Bdin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bdin attack 1.47 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
59%
level
21%
Bdin scores more
20%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 2–1 Bdin

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Bdin 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo (Slavyanovo).