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Bdin vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Bdin
Bdin
FT
0 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
4/2/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 24Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bdin51%
×Draw24%
Vihar Slavyanovo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
1.74
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

Bdin creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

creates per match

Bdin
2.33
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Bdin
0.96
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
75%
Bdin or Vihar Slavyanovo
76%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
49%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
28%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
82%
Bdin 2+ goals
52%
Bdin 3+ goals
25%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
68%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
32%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
67%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bdin scores more
51%
level
24%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
25%

Bdin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Bdin 0–0 Vihar Slavyanovo

Bdin and Vihar Slavyanovo drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Vidin.