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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
2/19/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 18Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo58%
×Draw22%
Akademik Svishtov19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
1.88
Akademik Svishtov
0.98

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 92% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 104 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Akademik Svishtov
1.19

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Akademik Svishtov
1.68

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Akademik Svishtov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
81%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Akademik Svishtov
78%
Draw or Akademik Svishtov
42%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
34%
Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
85%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
56%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
29%
Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
62%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
26%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
75%
Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
58%
level
22%
Akademik Svishtov scores more
19%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 4–0 Akademik Svishtov

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Akademik Svishtov 4-0 in Third League - Northwest on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.