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Akademik Svishtov vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
3/8/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 15Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Akademik Svishtov47%
×Draw25%
Vihar Slavyanovo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
1.56
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.12

Akademik Svishtov creates 39% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 95 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
73%
Akademik Svishtov or Vihar Slavyanovo
75%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
53%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
24%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
79%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
46%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
21%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
67%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
31%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
63%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
47%
level
25%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
27%

Akademik Svishtov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademik Svishtov vs Vihar Slavyanovo

Akademik Svishtov and Vihar Slavyanovo drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svištov.