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Viggbyholms IK vs IFK Norrkoping — Svenska Cupen 2019

Viggbyholms IK
Viggbyholms IK
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
A. Bronner 71'
A. Eriksson 29'
C. Nyman 25'
8/19/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundDanderyds Gymnasium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viggbyholms IK12%
×Draw14%
IFK Norrkoping74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viggbyholms IK
1.18
IFK Norrkoping
3.09

IFK Norrkoping creates 162% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Viggbyholms IK
1.00
IFK Norrkoping
2.85

allows per match

Viggbyholms IK
3.33
IFK Norrkoping
1.35

finishing

Viggbyholms IK+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viggbyholms IK ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Viggbyholms IK or draw
26%
Viggbyholms IK or IFK Norrkoping
86%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
88%

Winning margin

Viggbyholms IK wins by 2+
4%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Viggbyholms IK 1+ goals
69%
Viggbyholms IK 2+ goals
33%
Viggbyholms IK 3+ goals
12%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
95%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
81%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Viggbyholms IK (draw refunded)
13%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viggbyholms IK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viggbyholms IK attack 1.00 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + Viggbyholms IK defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Viggbyholms IK scores more
12%
level
14%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
74%

IFK Norrkoping at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
C. Nyman
29'
A. Eriksson
71'
A. Bronner
Viggbyholms
IFK
R. Björknesjö
Manager: R. Björknesjö
Martin Falk
Manager: Martin Falk

Svenska Cupen: Viggbyholms IK 0–3 IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat Viggbyholms IK 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 19, 2025.

Goals: C. Nyman (25'), A. Eriksson (29'), A. Bronner (71').

The match was played at Danderyds Gymnasium in Danderyd.