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Viggbyholms IK vs Dalkurd FF — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Viggbyholms IK
Viggbyholms IK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
H. Thorgerzon 74'
F. Strangborn 28', 20'
10/5/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 24Hägernäs IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viggbyholms IK59%
×Draw20%
Dalkurd FF21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viggbyholms IK
2.26
Dalkurd FF
1.27

Viggbyholms IK creates 78% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viggbyholms IK
1.83
Dalkurd FF
1.23

allows per match

Viggbyholms IK
1.30
Dalkurd FF
2.69

finishing

Viggbyholms IK+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viggbyholms IK ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viggbyholms IK or draw
79%
Viggbyholms IK or Dalkurd FF
80%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
41%

Winning margin

Viggbyholms IK wins by 2+
37%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viggbyholms IK 1+ goals
89%
Viggbyholms IK 2+ goals
66%
Viggbyholms IK 3+ goals
39%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
72%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viggbyholms IK (draw refunded)
74%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viggbyholms IK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viggbyholms IK attack 1.83 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.26

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Viggbyholms IK defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Viggbyholms IK scores more
59%
level
20%
Dalkurd FF scores more
21%

Viggbyholms IK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Viggbyholms IK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Strangborn
28'
F. Strangborn
74'
H. Thorgerzon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Viggbyholms IK 1–2 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Viggbyholms IK 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on October 5, 2024.

Goals: F. Strangborn (20', 28'), H. Thorgerzon (74').

The match was played at Hägernäs IP 1 in Täby.