Vigasio 0–1 Union Feltre: Result & Stats

Vigasio

FT

0 – 1

Union Feltre

11/3/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 12Stadio Comunale Umberto Capone (Vigasio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigasio30%

×Draw24%

Union Feltre46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VigasioExpected goals in this matchUnion Feltre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.71

Vigasio

1.34

Union Feltre

1.71

Union Feltre creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

1.37

creates per match

2.00

1.43

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Vigasio

1.37

Union Feltre

2.00

allows per match

Vigasio

1.43

Union Feltre

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vigasio+0.00on par

Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigasio ↓

Union Feltre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vigasio or draw

54%

Vigasio or Union Feltre

76%

Draw or Union Feltre

70%

Winning margin

Vigasio wins by 2+

13%

Union Feltre wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vigasio 1+ goals

74%

Vigasio 2+ goals

39%

Vigasio 3+ goals

15%

Union Feltre 1+ goals

82%

Union Feltre 2+ goals

51%

Union Feltre 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vigasio (draw refunded)

40%

Union Feltre (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigasio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigasio attack 1.37 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Vigasio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vigasio scores more

30%

level

24%

Union Feltre scores more

46%

Union Feltre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff