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Vigør vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vigør
Vigør
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
4/20/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 3Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør18%
×Draw19%
Vindbjart63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigør
1.11
Vindbjart
2.27

Vindbjart creates 105% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vigør
1.08
Vindbjart
0.92

allows per match

Vigør
3.62
Vindbjart
1.15

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vigør or draw
37%
Vigør or Vindbjart
81%
Draw or Vindbjart
82%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+
6%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals
67%
Vigør 2+ goals
30%
Vigør 3+ goals
10%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
90%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
66%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)
22%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Vindbjart defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Vindbjart attack 0.92 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vigør scores more
18%
level
19%
Vindbjart scores more
63%

Vindbjart at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vigør vs Vindbjart

Vindbjart beat Vigør 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.