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Vigør vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vigør
Vigør
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Start II
Start II
4/7/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 1Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør35%
×Draw19%
Start II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigør
2.23
Start II
2.58

Start II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vigør
1.08
Start II
1.54

allows per match

Vigør
3.62
Start II
3.38

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Vigør or draw
54%
Vigør or Start II
81%
Draw or Start II
65%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+
19%
Start II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals
89%
Vigør 2+ goals
65%
Vigør 3+ goals
38%
Start II 1+ goals
92%
Start II 2+ goals
72%
Start II 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)
43%
Start II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Start II away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Start II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.23

Start II attack 1.54 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vigør scores more
35%
level
19%
Start II scores more
46%

Start II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Vigør 2–5 Start II

Start II beat Vigør 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.