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Vigør vs Sola — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vigør
Vigør
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Sola
Sola
5/4/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 5Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør25%
×Draw18%
Sola58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigør
1.89
Sola
2.88

Sola creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vigør
1.08
Sola
2.15

allows per match

Vigør
3.62
Sola
2.69

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par
Sola+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Sola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Vigør or draw
42%
Vigør or Sola
82%
Draw or Sola
75%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+
12%
Sola wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals
85%
Vigør 2+ goals
56%
Vigør 3+ goals
29%
Sola 1+ goals
94%
Sola 2+ goals
78%
Sola 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)
30%
Sola (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Sola away — creates 2.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Sola defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sola attack 2.15 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vigør scores more
25%
level
18%
Sola scores more
58%

Sola at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vigør 1 – 5 Sola

Sola beat Vigør 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.