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Vigør vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vigør
Vigør
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
B. Andreassen 78'
A. Qorraj 74'
H. Haus 19'
I. Hebnes 31'
C. Salvesen 12'
8/31/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 19Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør40%
×Draw20%
Sandnes Ulf II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigør
2.31
Sandnes Ulf II
2.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vigør
1.08
Sandnes Ulf II
1.00

allows per match

Vigør
3.62
Sandnes Ulf II
3.54

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Vigør or draw
60%
Vigør or Sandnes Ulf II
80%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
60%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+
23%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals
90%
Vigør 2+ goals
67%
Vigør 3+ goals
40%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
90%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
67%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)
50%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.31

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.00 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vigør scores more
40%
level
20%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
40%

Vigør at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vigør will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
C. Salvesen
19'
H. Haus
31'
I. Hebnes
74'
A. Qorraj
78'
B. Andreassen
90'
K. Pedersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vigør vs Sandnes Ulf II

Vigør beat Sandnes Ulf II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 31, 2024.

Goals: C. Salvesen (12'), H. Haus (19'), I. Hebnes (31'), A. Qorraj (74'), B. Andreassen (78').

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.