Vigør 1–2 Mandalskameratene: Result & Stats

Vigør

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mandalskameratene

6/15/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 11Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør34%

×Draw19%

Mandalskameratene47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VigørExpected goals in this matchMandalskameratene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.50

Vigør

2.12

Mandalskameratene

2.50

Mandalskameratene creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

1.38

3.62

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Vigør

1.08

Mandalskameratene

1.38

allows per match

Vigør

3.62

Mandalskameratene

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Mandalskameratene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Vigør or draw

53%

Vigør or Mandalskameratene

81%

Draw or Mandalskameratene

66%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+

18%

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals

88%

Vigør 2+ goals

62%

Vigør 3+ goals

35%

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

92%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

71%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)

42%

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Mandalskameratene defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.12

Mandalskameratene attack 1.38 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vigør scores more

34%

level

19%

Mandalskameratene scores more

47%

Mandalskameratene at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mandalskameratene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Vigør 1–2 Mandalskameratene

Mandalskameratene beat Vigør 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.

Vigør vs Mandalskameratene — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

3. Division - Girone 2: Vigør 1–2 Mandalskameratene