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Vigør vs Madla — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vigør
Vigør
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Madla
Madla
6/22/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 12Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør19%
×Draw16%
Madla65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigør
1.61
Madla
3.00

Madla creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vigør
1.08
Madla
2.38

allows per match

Vigør
3.62
Madla
2.15

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par
Madla+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Madla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Vigør or draw
35%
Vigør or Madla
84%
Draw or Madla
81%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+
8%
Madla wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals
80%
Vigør 2+ goals
48%
Vigør 3+ goals
22%
Madla 1+ goals
95%
Madla 2+ goals
79%
Madla 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)
23%
Madla (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Madla away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Madla defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Madla attack 2.38 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vigør scores more
19%
level
16%
Madla scores more
65%

Madla at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Madla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vigør vs Madla

Madla beat Vigør 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.