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VIFK vs VPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

VIFK
VIFK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VPS II
VPS II
7/7/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 10Kamratvallen TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VIFK48%
×Draw22%
VPS II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VIFK
1.98
VPS II
1.56

VIFK creates 27% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 25 away

creates per match

VIFK
1.56
VPS II
1.64

allows per match

VIFK
1.49
VPS II
2.40

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par
VPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

VPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

VIFK or draw
69%
VIFK or VPS II
78%
Draw or VPS II
52%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+
27%
VPS II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals
86%
VIFK 2+ goals
59%
VIFK 3+ goals
31%
VPS II 1+ goals
79%
VPS II 2+ goals
46%
VPS II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)
61%
VPS II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

VPS II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.56 + VPS II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.98

VPS II attack 1.64 + VIFK defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VIFK scores more
48%
level
22%
VPS II scores more
31%

VIFK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VIFK 0 – 0 VPS II

VIFK and VPS II drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 7, 2025.

The match was played at Kamratvallen TN in Vaasa.