VIFK 1–0 Tampere United: Result & Stats

VIFK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tampere United

5/10/2018

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Round 3Elisa Stadion (Vaasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VIFK51%

×Draw24%

Tampere United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VIFKExpected goals in this matchTampere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.16

VIFK

1.73

Tampere United

1.16

VIFK creates 49% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

0.82

1.49

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

VIFK

1.56

Tampere United

0.82

allows per match

VIFK

1.49

Tampere United

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par

Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

Tampere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

VIFK or draw

74%

VIFK or Tampere United

76%

Draw or Tampere United

49%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+

27%

Tampere United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals

82%

VIFK 2+ goals

52%

VIFK 3+ goals

25%

Tampere United 1+ goals

69%

Tampere United 2+ goals

32%

Tampere United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)

66%

Tampere United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Tampere United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.56 + Tampere United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tampere United attack 0.82 + VIFK defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VIFK scores more

51%

level

24%

Tampere United scores more

26%

VIFK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff