VIFK 0–1 SJK Akatemia: Result & Stats

VIFK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SJK Akatemia

8/23/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 10Elisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

VIFK28%

×Draw23%

SJK Akatemia49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VIFKExpected goals in this matchSJK Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.83

VIFK

1.34

SJK Akatemia

1.83

SJK Akatemia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 33 away

1.56

creates per match

2.18

1.49

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

VIFK

1.56

SJK Akatemia

2.18

allows per match

VIFK

1.49

SJK Akatemia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

SJK Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VIFK or draw

51%

VIFK or SJK Akatemia

77%

Draw or SJK Akatemia

72%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+

12%

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals

74%

VIFK 2+ goals

39%

VIFK 3+ goals

15%

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

84%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

54%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)

37%

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.56 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.34

SJK Akatemia attack 2.18 + VIFK defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

VIFK scores more

28%

level

23%

SJK Akatemia scores more

49%

SJK Akatemia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff