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VIFK vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

VIFK
VIFK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
6/22/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundLemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VIFK24%
×Draw21%
Mariehamn55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VIFK
1.35
Mariehamn
2.12

Mariehamn creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

VIFK
1.67
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

VIFK
1.83
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

VIFK or draw
45%
VIFK or Mariehamn
79%
Draw or Mariehamn
76%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+
10%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals
74%
VIFK 2+ goals
39%
VIFK 3+ goals
15%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
88%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
62%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)
31%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.67 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + VIFK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

VIFK scores more
24%
level
21%
Mariehamn scores more
55%

Mariehamn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VIFK vs Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat VIFK 1-0 in Suomen Cup on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.