Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VIFK vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

VIFK
VIFK
CANC
12:00
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
8/16/2025Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 18Kamratvallen TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

VIFK55%
×Draw21%
Kuopion Elo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VIFK
2.17
Kuopion Elo
1.38

VIFK creates 57% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 22 away

creates per match

VIFK
1.56
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

VIFK
1.49
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

VIFK or draw
76%
VIFK or Kuopion Elo
79%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
45%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+
33%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals
89%
VIFK 2+ goals
64%
VIFK 3+ goals
36%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
75%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
40%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)
70%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.56 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + VIFK defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

VIFK scores more
55%
level
21%
Kuopion Elo scores more
24%

VIFK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "VIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VIFK host Kuopion Elo

August 16, 2025: VIFK take on Kuopion Elo in Kakkonen - Lohko C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VIFK host Kuopion Elo at Kamratvallen TN.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.