VIFK 4–0 FC Komeetat: Result & Stats

VIFK

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

FC Komeetat

7/16/2022

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 8Elisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VIFK63%

×Draw20%

FC Komeetat17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VIFKExpected goals in this matchFC Komeetat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.06

VIFK

2.19

FC Komeetat

1.06

VIFK creates 107% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

0.64

1.49

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

VIFK

1.56

FC Komeetat

0.64

allows per match

VIFK

1.49

FC Komeetat

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par

FC Komeetat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

FC Komeetat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

VIFK or draw

83%

VIFK or FC Komeetat

80%

Draw or FC Komeetat

37%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+

40%

FC Komeetat wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals

89%

VIFK 2+ goals

64%

VIFK 3+ goals

37%

FC Komeetat 1+ goals

65%

FC Komeetat 2+ goals

29%

FC Komeetat 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)

78%

FC Komeetat (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

FC Komeetat away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.56 + FC Komeetat defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.19

FC Komeetat attack 0.64 + VIFK defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

VIFK scores more

63%

level

20%

FC Komeetat scores more

17%

VIFK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "VIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff