Viettel 1–0 Sai Gon: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Viettel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sai Gon

9/26/2020

V.League 1 · Round 12Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Viettel53%

×Draw24%

Sai Gon23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViettelExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.99

Viettel

1.66

Sai Gon

0.99

Viettel creates 68% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 42 away

1.46

creates per match

1.12

0.86

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Viettel

1.46

Sai Gon

1.12

allows per match

Viettel

0.86

Sai Gon

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Sai Gon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Viettel or draw

77%

Viettel or Sai Gon

76%

Draw or Sai Gon

47%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+

29%

Sai Gon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals

81%

Viettel 2+ goals

49%

Viettel 3+ goals

23%

Sai Gon 1+ goals

63%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

26%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)

70%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.86 · 90 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 1.46 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Viettel defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viettel scores more

53%

level

24%

Sai Gon scores more

23%

Viettel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff