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Viettel vs Kaya — AFC Champions League 2018

Viettel
Viettel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaya
Kaya
7/11/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group F - 6LEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viettel60%
×Draw22%
Kaya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viettel
1.90
Kaya
0.92

Viettel creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Viettel
0.67
Kaya
0.50

allows per match

Viettel
1.33
Kaya
3.13

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Viettel or draw
82%
Viettel or Kaya
78%
Draw or Kaya
40%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+
36%
Kaya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals
85%
Viettel 2+ goals
56%
Viettel 3+ goals
29%
Kaya 1+ goals
60%
Kaya 2+ goals
23%
Kaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)
77%
Kaya (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kaya away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 0.67 + Kaya defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kaya attack 0.50 + Viettel defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Viettel scores more
60%
level
22%
Kaya scores more
18%

Viettel at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viettel vs Kaya

Viettel beat Kaya 1-0 in AFC Champions League on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at LEO Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.