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Viettel vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai — Cup 2019

Viettel
Vietteladvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
3/30/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsSân vận động quốc gia Mỹ Đình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Viettel60%
×Draw23%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viettel
1.73
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
0.79

Viettel creates 119% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Viettel
2.25
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.00

allows per match

Viettel
0.58
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.20

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par
Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Hoang Anh Gia Lai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Viettel or draw
83%
Viettel or Hoang Anh Gia Lai
77%
Draw or Hoang Anh Gia Lai
40%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+
34%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals
82%
Viettel 2+ goals
52%
Viettel 3+ goals
25%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals
55%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals
19%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)
78%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 2.25 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.00 + Viettel defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Viettel scores more
60%
level
23%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more
17%

Viettel at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viettel vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai

Viettel beat Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2-0 in Cup on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động quốc gia Mỹ Đình in Hanoi.