Vietnam W 2–0 Uzbekistan W: Result & Stats

Vietnam W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Uzbekistan W

Pham Hai Yen 35'

B. Nguyen Thi 20'

10/23/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Yongchuan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vietnam W30%

×Draw20%

Uzbekistan W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vietnam WExpected goals in this matchUzbekistan W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

2.38

Vietnam W

1.84

Uzbekistan W

2.38

Uzbekistan W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

0.96

3.80

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Vietnam W

1.20

Uzbekistan W

0.96

allows per match

Vietnam W

3.80

Uzbekistan W

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vietnam W+0.00on par

Uzbekistan W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam W ↓

Uzbekistan W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Vietnam W or draw

50%

Vietnam W or Uzbekistan W

80%

Draw or Uzbekistan W

70%

Winning margin

Vietnam W wins by 2+

15%

Uzbekistan W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Vietnam W 1+ goals

84%

Vietnam W 2+ goals

55%

Vietnam W 3+ goals

28%

Uzbekistan W 1+ goals

91%

Uzbekistan W 2+ goals

68%

Uzbekistan W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Vietnam W (draw refunded)

38%

Uzbekistan W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Uzbekistan W away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam W attack 1.20 + Uzbekistan W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.84

Uzbekistan W attack 0.96 + Vietnam W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vietnam W scores more

30%

level

20%

Uzbekistan W scores more

50%

Uzbekistan W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uzbekistan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

B. Nguyen Thi

35'

Pham Hai Yen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff