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Vietnam W vs Thailand W — Asean Championship Women 2025

Vietnam W
Vietnam W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thailand W
Thailand W
8/12/2025Asean Championship WomenAsean Championship Women · 1st Round - 3Sân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vietnam W52%
×Draw21%
Thailand W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vietnam W
2.13
Thailand W
1.50

Vietnam W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vietnam W
2.75
Thailand W
2.25

allows per match

Vietnam W
0.75
Thailand W
1.50

finishing

Vietnam W+0.00on par
Thailand W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam W ↓

Thailand W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vietnam W or draw
73%
Vietnam W or Thailand W
79%
Draw or Thailand W
48%

Winning margin

Vietnam W wins by 2+
31%
Thailand W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vietnam W 1+ goals
88%
Vietnam W 2+ goals
63%
Vietnam W 3+ goals
35%
Thailand W 1+ goals
78%
Thailand W 2+ goals
44%
Thailand W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vietnam W (draw refunded)
66%
Thailand W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Thailand W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam W attack 2.75 + Thailand W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Thailand W attack 2.25 + Vietnam W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vietnam W scores more
52%
level
21%
Thailand W scores more
27%

Vietnam W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vietnam W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asean Championship Women: Vietnam W 1–0 Thailand W

Vietnam W beat Thailand W 1-0 in Asean Championship Women on August 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Lạch Tray in Hải Phòng (Hai Phong).