Vietnam 0–3 Russia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Vietnam

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Russia

T. Musaev 77'

Vũ Văn Thanh 61' (OG)

D. Kuzyaev 24'

9/5/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Sân vận động quốc gia Mỹ Đình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vietnam40%

×Draw27%

Russia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VietnamExpected goals in this matchRussia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.14

Vietnam

1.29

Russia

1.14

Vietnam creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.76

creates per match

1.56

0.71

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Vietnam

1.76

Russia

1.56

allows per match

Vietnam

0.71

Russia

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vietnam+0.00on par

Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam ↓

Russia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vietnam or draw

67%

Vietnam or Russia

73%

Draw or Russia

60%

Winning margin

Vietnam wins by 2+

18%

Russia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vietnam 1+ goals

72%

Vietnam 2+ goals

37%

Vietnam 3+ goals

14%

Russia 1+ goals

68%

Russia 2+ goals

32%

Russia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vietnam (draw refunded)

55%

Russia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Russia away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam attack 1.76 + Russia defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Russia attack 1.56 + Vietnam defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vietnam scores more

40%

level

27%

Russia scores more

33%

Vietnam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vietnam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Musaev

Russia · F

8.3

Match Events

24'

D. Kuzyaev↳ T. Musaev

34'

V. Paltsev← E. Morozov

45+1'

Artem Karpukas

46'

Nguyễn Tiến Linh← Đinh Thanh Bình

46'

E. Latyshonok← A. Lunev

46'

D. Prutsev← N. Krivtsov

57'

Phạm Tuấn Hải← Nguyễn Hai Long

57'

Bùi Vĩ Hào← Nguyễn Hoàng Đức

61'

Vũ Văn ThanhOwn goal

63'

D. Vorobyev← S. Pinyaev

63'

D. Glebov← A. Karpukas

71'

Nguyễn Quang Hải← Đỗ Hùng Dũng

76'

A. Adamov← V. Karavaev

77'

T. Musaev↳ D. Prutsev

81'

Giáp Tuấn Dương← Phan Tuấn Tài

81'

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh← Quế Ngọc Hải

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VietnamRussia

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots14

2Corners2

4Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots14

1On Target6

5Off Target3

1Blocked5

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

401Total Passes484

332Accurate Passes419

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls17

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4