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Vietnam vs Kyrgyzstan — Friendlies 2026

Vietnam
Vietnam
CANC
00:00
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
3/25/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Sân vận động Gò Đậu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vietnam64%
×Draw22%
Kyrgyzstan14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vietnam
1.89
Kyrgyzstan
0.75

Vietnam creates 152% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vietnam
1.77
Kyrgyzstan
0.73

allows per match

Vietnam
0.77
Kyrgyzstan
2.00

finishing

Vietnam+0.00on par
Kyrgyzstan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam ↓

Kyrgyzstan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vietnam or draw
86%
Vietnam or Kyrgyzstan
78%
Draw or Kyrgyzstan
36%

Winning margin

Vietnam wins by 2+
39%
Kyrgyzstan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vietnam 1+ goals
85%
Vietnam 2+ goals
56%
Vietnam 3+ goals
29%
Kyrgyzstan 1+ goals
53%
Kyrgyzstan 2+ goals
17%
Kyrgyzstan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vietnam (draw refunded)
82%
Kyrgyzstan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Kyrgyzstan away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam attack 1.77 + Kyrgyzstan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kyrgyzstan attack 0.73 + Vietnam defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vietnam scores more
64%
level
22%
Kyrgyzstan scores more
14%

Vietnam at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vietnam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vietnam vs Kyrgyzstan — Match Preview

Vietnam face Kyrgyzstan on March 25, 2020 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vietnam host Kyrgyzstan at Sân vận động Gò Đậu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.