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Vietnam U19 vs Malaysia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Vietnam U19
Vietnam U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Malaysia U19
Malaysia U19advanced
D. Haykal 87'
M. H. Haqeemi Hairi 70'
A. Farhan 26'
7/13/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Semi-finalsStadion Patriot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vietnam U1926%
×Draw22%
Malaysia U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vietnam U19
1.32
Malaysia U19
1.93

Malaysia U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vietnam U19
1.50
Malaysia U19
2.86

allows per match

Vietnam U19
1.00
Malaysia U19
1.14

finishing

Vietnam U19+0.00on par
Malaysia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam U19 ↓

Malaysia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vietnam U19 or draw
48%
Vietnam U19 or Malaysia U19
78%
Draw or Malaysia U19
74%

Winning margin

Vietnam U19 wins by 2+
11%
Malaysia U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Vietnam U19 1+ goals
73%
Vietnam U19 2+ goals
38%
Vietnam U19 3+ goals
15%
Malaysia U19 1+ goals
85%
Malaysia U19 2+ goals
57%
Malaysia U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Vietnam U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Malaysia U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Malaysia U19 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam U19 attack 1.50 + Malaysia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Malaysia U19 attack 2.86 + Vietnam U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vietnam U19 scores more
26%
level
22%
Malaysia U19 scores more
52%

Malaysia U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Malaysia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
A. Farhan
70'
M. H. Haqeemi Hairi
87'
D. Haykal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Vietnam U19 0–3 Malaysia U19

Malaysia U19 beat Vietnam U19 3-0 in AFF U19 Championship on July 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Farhan (26'), M. H. Haqeemi Hairi (70'), D. Haykal (87').

The match was played at Stadion Patriot in Bekasi.