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Vietnam U17 vs N. Mariana Islands U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2025

Vietnam U17
Vietnam U17
FT
14 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
N. Mariana Islands U17
N. Mariana Islands U17
11/24/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vietnam U1798%
×Draw2%
N. Mariana Islands U171%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vietnam U17
6.79
N. Mariana Islands U17
0.69

Vietnam U17 creates 884% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vietnam U17
3.25
N. Mariana Islands U17
0.00

allows per match

Vietnam U17
1.38
N. Mariana Islands U17
10.33

finishing

Vietnam U17+0.00on par
N. Mariana Islands U17+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam U17 ↓

N. Mariana Islands U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 40% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
88%12%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

Vietnam U17 or draw
99%
Vietnam U17 or N. Mariana Islands U17
98%
Draw or N. Mariana Islands U17
2%

Winning margin

Vietnam U17 wins by 2+
93%
N. Mariana Islands U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Vietnam U17 1+ goals
100%
Vietnam U17 2+ goals
98%
Vietnam U17 3+ goals
93%
N. Mariana Islands U17 1+ goals
50%
N. Mariana Islands U17 2+ goals
15%
N. Mariana Islands U17 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vietnam U17 (draw refunded)
99%
N. Mariana Islands U17 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam U17 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

N. Mariana Islands U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 10.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam U17 attack 3.25 + N. Mariana Islands U17 defence 10.33 → ÷2 → 6.79

N. Mariana Islands U17 attack 0.00 + Vietnam U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

Vietnam U17 scores more
98%
level
2%
N. Mariana Islands U17 scores more
1%

Vietnam U17 at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Vietnam U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC U17 Asian Cup: Vietnam U17 14–0 N. Mariana Islands U17

Vietnam U17 beat N. Mariana Islands U17 14-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 24, 2025.